Political Musical Chairs!

The big news last week was Governor John Lynch’s announcement that he will not run for a historic 5th term. News like this is to a political junkie what a triple fudge chocolate cake (with sprinkles) is to a chocolahoic. The decision opens the door to countless speculative stories and political punditry about what could happen; what will happen; and what should happen – Oh Happy Days! The governor’s announcement completely overshadowed the House’s overriding his veto on SB88 – [guns and the use of physical force in the defense of a person] – so, from a purely political perspective, the governor again showed his political skills on how to capture the news cycle. Unfortunately, I will have to save my story on how we are going back to the Wild West and shoot-ups at local watering holes for another day. The governor’s decision demonstrates his strength at being able to communicate with the people of New Hampshire. He is certainly someone who knows his own mind and has consistently been forthright and candid with voters. For example - while I have not always appreciated his stand on broad base taxes – I always knew where he stood on the issue. The Governor could have dragged this decision out for months, allowing speculation to build and used it as a tool to enhance his standing, and garner a great deal of personal publicity. However, choosing to be upfront and let us all know his plans – sends a broadside to both potential candidates and to voters that it is time to start paying attention to the future of New Hampshire. Also, I believe this strengthens his ability to lead for the next 16 months while providing ample time for individuals interested in the job to organize – raise funds – meet people – and refine their message. While there is always the risk of being seen as a lame duck and thus ineffective; that would normally only apply in dealing with the legislature. However, in the House he presently faces a 3:1 ratio in favor of republicans who have demonstrated a commitment to a radical libertarian agenda; therefore the opportunity for genuine compromise and collaboration is exceedingly slim. Now – when Lynch disagrees – the opposition can’t say he is posturing or “playing to the crowd.” He will now have the ‘bully pulpit’ and be perceived correctly as acting in the best interest of New Hampshire. While I am certain members of the opposition never personally questioned his motives – public posturing and accusations was sometimes a different matter. Now, Governor Lynch can take the high road without being accused of acting out of political convenience. Furthermore, he can hold the radical libertarians accountable and demonstrate how their extremist principles will negatively impact New Hampshire! Oh Happy Days! Lastly, the governor’s decision is in the best tradition of American Democracy. Few doubted his ability to be re-elected; however the decision to step down allows the opportunity for a new set of eyes to focus on solutions versus the risk of becoming stale. Of course, no time was wasted before political pundits and a spectrum of self appointed experts started the process of speculating who’s waiting in the wings to occupy the statehouse corner office. Based on the names being floated, the 2012 election should provide two very distinct and clear ideologies and determine if we will steer right or left. Among the republicans, names such as Ovide LaMontagne, Jeb Bradley and John Steven are surfacing while Maggie Hassan and Jacalyn Cilley are being discussed by the democrats. Both LaMontagne and Stephen are lawyers and lifelong residents of Manchester. John Stephen ran for governor and was soundly defeated by John Lynch in the last election, and many will recall how Ovide LaMontagne lost a close primary race to Kelly Ayotte for the US Senate. Jeb Bradley is a state senator from Wolfeboro and a former US Congressman. All three republicans are viewed as being on the far right of the political spectrum, and aligned to the Tea Party wing of the party. On the democrat side – Jacalyn Cilley and Maggie Hassan are both former New Hampshire State Senators. Jacalyn Cilley is a marketing consultant from Barrington, while Maggie Hassan is a lawyer from Exeter. Both are viewed as center left on the political spectrum with ties to the traditional democrat establishment and organizations. Nonetheless rumblings have already started, in both parties, about finding someone who best reflects the centrist views of Governor Lynch and the New Hampshire voter. Historically, candidates are often placed in the position of having to go to either the right or left to win their party’s nomination. However, conventional thinking is – to win the general election, a candidate needs to be viewed as centrist and mainstream. Interestingly, the names of several western NH politicians are being mentioned. Senators Houde (Plainfield) and Odell (Lempster) – both from Sullivan County are being suggested as potential candidates with broad appeal, along with Senator Molly Kelly from Keene. So if you remember the game of musical chairs – we are about to experience something similar – political musical chairs – Oh Happy Days!